Liberals leading with 38% voter support, Tories 31% and NDP 24%: IPSOS poll

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justin BRITAIN-G8-SUMMIT-CANADA-PRESSER tom mulcair2Toronto: A new Ipsos Reid poll conducted for Global News has revealed that Justin Trudeau and the Liberals would receive 38% support among decided voters, up 5 points since April. By comparison, Stephen Harper and the Conservatives would receive 31% of the vote, down 2 points. Thomas Mulcair and the NDP sit unchanged at 24%, while the Bloc under Mario Beaulieu would receive 3% of the vote (15% in Quebec), down 3 points. Elizabeth May and the Green party would also receive 3% of the vote nationally, down 1 point, while 15% don’t know who they would vote for at this early juncture.

In the Spring of 2014, it looked as though the Harper Conservatives had re-fuelled their tanks and were making up some ground on Justin Trudeau and the Liberals, but with a little more than a year to go until the start of the fixed election date campaign scheduled for the fall of 2015, it appears that the Tories are sputtering while the Grits are cruising.

The Tories have had a difficult year trying to gain traction with voters, while at same time the Liberals – who have their sights set on a majority government in the next election – are continuing an upward trajectory that began two years ago, despite the odd blunder or misstep from the rookie-leader Trudeau.

 

Infographic by IPSOS
Infographic by IPSOS

This is how a 7-point national lead for the Liberals translates in some of the more populous regions of Canada:

  • In Ontario, the Liberals (40%) hold an 8-point lead over the Tories (32%), who lead the NDP (24%).
  • In Quebec, the Liberals (38%) have a comfortable lead over the NDP (29%), while the Tories (17%) and Bloc (15%) are on shaky ground in la belle province.
  • In British Columbia, the Tories (40%) have a tenuous 4-point lead over the Liberals (36%), who are well ahead of the NDP (19%).

 

Half of Canadians Agree Government Must Provide Key Social Programs, Even if it means More Taxes…

Fully one half (50%) of Canadians ‘agree’ (13% strongly/36% somewhat) that ‘government must provide key social programs even if that means increasing taxes’, up 7 points since last asked in 2011. Conversely, four in ten (42%) ‘disagree’ (14% strongly/28% somewhat) with this position, down 7 points, while 8% are unsure (unchanged).

Canadians appear to be warming to the idea of taxing to maintain or enhance social programs, which is in contrast to the Conservative mantra of cutting taxes and limiting spending. This could at least partly explain some of the shift in support away from the Tories and towards the Liberals over the past two years.

Finding the right budgeting mix can be a difficult job for governments, particularly when many Canadians are mixed or contradictory in their opinions. While 50% say they supported increased taxation to fund social programs, two in three (64%) ‘agree’ (27% strongly/37% somewhat) that ‘governments must spend within their means even if that requires cutting some programs and services’, down 1 point since 2011. Conversely, one in three (32%, up 4 points) ‘disagrees’ (8% strongly/24% somewhat) that budgets must be balanced, while 8% don’t know (up 1 point).

Moreover, most (66%, up 2 points) ‘agree’ (33% strongly/33% somewhat) that they’d ‘rather get a tax break than a new government program’, while just one in four (23%, down 3 points) ‘disagree’ (5% strongly/18% somewhat) and 10% don’t know (up 3 points).

 These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between August 14th to 17th, 2014 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,012 Canadians from Ipsos’ Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/- 3.5 percentage points had all Canadians adults been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.